As temperatures continue to climb around the globe as a result of climate change, Greenland, an island nation of approximately 56,000 residents, has found itself at a social, political, economic and environmental crossroads. The Danish autonomous territory is the world’s largest island and is home to an ice sheet which extends for approximately 656,000 square miles, enough solid water which, if melted, could raise sea levels by 24 feet.

This figure is alarming given that between 1992 and 2018, Greenland lost 3.8 trillion tons of ice due to rising temperatures. However, while other countries brace themselves for the impact of rising sea levels, Greenland stands to benefit economically from climate change. While the loss of ice has already hurt the livelihoods of Indigenous hunters and the potential for infrastructure projects which rely on a layer of permafrost, other areas of Greenland’s economy, including agriculture, fishing and potential mineral deposits, have benefited from the changing climate.

This has raised questions surrounding Greenland’s status as an autonomous territory within Denmark. While the island has historically remained under Danish control due to a lack of industry, the potential for an economically independent Greenland has raised questions as to what the future for the nation holds. Below are three potential outcomes due to climate change that could be in Greenland’s future.

Greenland Remains under Danish Rule

The first scenario that Greenland could find itself in is its current reality. While Greenland has been under some form of Danish rule since the 1600s, the island’s modern relationship with Denmark began with the creation of the 1953 Danish Constitution, which formally ended Greenland’s colonial status. Through subsequent policy changes throughout the latter half of the 20th century and into the 21st, Greenlanders slowly gained more and more autonomy, including the establishment of home rule in 1979, the nation’s departure from the European Economic Community in 1985, and increased self rule in regards to judicial affairs, policing and natural resources in 2009.

Should Greenland remain a part of Denmark, the island would continue to maintain its autonomous territory status. This includes the nation not formally being a part of the European Union, as it is currently designated under the “overseas countries and territories” category, but still being eligible for support from various European Union financial programs. Likewise, Greenland would still have its military administered by Denmark, and would still elect two representatives to the Danish Parliament.

Greenland: North America’s Newest Country

While Greenland is an autonomous territory within Denmark and voted for increased independence from the Danish crown in 2008, the nation is still not a fully independent territory. An independent Greenland would see the island gain full control of its economy, which currently uses the Danish krone and has some trade agreements subject to Danish review, gain recognition as an independent country by the international community, and have complete sovereignty from Denmark.

Greenland faces some barriers to gaining independence. Under the 2009 Act on Greenland Self-Government, the nation has the right to declare independence at any time so long as a referendum is held on the issue among Greenlanders. While a 2016 poll saw that 64% of Greenlanders support independence, 78% of polled Greenlanders in 2017 remain against it if it would lead to a lower standard of living.

This concern stems from the nation’s continued economic dependence on Denmark, which is responsible for two-thirds of the nation’s entire budget revenue through an annual block grant, which has coincided with a call for the diversification of Greenland’s economy. This diversification may be facilitated through changes to the island’s geography and climate due to rising temperatures, but for the time being, any major economic reform on the island remains to be seen.

Greenland Under the Stars and Stripes

One of the most unlikely scenarios that has recently gained a lot of attention is the potential annexation of Greenland by the United States. Beginning in 1867 after the U.S. annexed Alaska and continuing to today, the conversation of Greenland’s annexation has remained a niche constant of U.S. foreign policy.

This idea came to prominence again in 2019 when President Donald Trump expressed an interest in buying the island from Denmark, with an estimated price tag of at least $200 million. This notion was ridiculed by both Danish and Greenlandic officials, who stated that the island was not for sale and condemned the idea as outdated and colonialist. However, Trump’s idea to annex Greenland directly stems from the results of climate change on the island, which have continued to make accessible more and more of the nation’s currently untapped oil and mineral reserves.

However, given that the international community, Denmark, Greenland and most Americans have ruled out the possibility as a serious proposal, it is unclear what an American-ruled Greenland would look like. The nation would likely not become a full-fledged state, as the nation’s culture, language and geographic location isolate it from the rest of the U.S. Rather, should the U.S. annex Greenland, the island would likely be categorized as an unincorporated, organized territory, which is the classification for the five populated U.S. territories. This would mean that the island’s 56,000 residents would become U.S. citizens, continue to have self-governance, and would elect one nonvoting member to the House of Representatives, but would be ineligible to vote in presidential elections.

That said, given the unpopularity of annexation and the numerous failed attempts at such a change in sovereignty, it is unlikely that Greenland will become a part of the United States any time soon.