The East African country has recently been overrun by natural disasters, COVID-19 and internal violence.

Rising tensions in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region pose a severe threat for the East African country and for stability across the Horn of Africa. Most urgently, the fighting places millions of people in danger and in dire need of humanitarian assistance.  

An Overview of the Conflict in Tigray

Ethiopia, the largest and most populous country in the Horn of Africa region, is home to many different religions, languages and ethnic groups. The recent fighting is taking place in Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost region along the border with Eritrea. The conflict is between Ethiopia’s central government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF came to power in 1991 and established a coalition where Ethiopia was divided into 10 distinct regions that each had political autonomy, allowing the TPLF to become a key player in Ethiopian politics. The TPLF remained in power for 27 years until rising concerns of political corruption and human rights abuses resulted in nationwide protests. As a result, Abiy Ahmed was elected the prime minister of Ethiopia in 2018 and began to reduce the TPLF’s power. While Ahmed advocates for a strong federal government that unites all Ethiopians regardless of ethnicity, the TPLF wants more political autonomy and sees Ahmed’s central government as a hindrance to the TPLF’s political agenda. 

The current dispute began when the TPLF wanted to hold a regional election in September. Prime Minister Ahmed denied the request, since all national elections in Ethiopia were canceled due to COVID-19. Fighting began on Nov. 4 when Tigrayan forces were accused of attacking a military base belonging to Ahmed’s government. The violence in the region continues to escalate. 

Abiy Ahmed is widely recognized for brokering peace and ending a military conflict with neighboring Eritrea, an effort that resulted in Ahmed receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. However the current escalating violence is causing the international community to raise its eyebrows. According to Kjetil Tronvoll, a scholar of Ethiopian politics at Bjorknes University College in Norway, “The Nobel Peace Prize has until recently shielded Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from international scrutiny and criticism. However, the warfare on Tigray has opened the eyes of many diplomats to the way political power is wielded in Ethiopia.”

What is Happening Now? 

On Nov. 28, the Ethiopian army gained control of the Tigrayan regional capital of Mekelle, with Prime Minister Ahmed declaring victory shortly thereafter. However, Tigrayan forces have yet to surrender. Since the conflict began, telephone, internet and road access to the Tigray region has been suspended, making it difficult to know what is happening on the ground. Shortly after Ahmed declared victory, rockets were fired at the Eritrean capital of Asmara, where according to the U.S. embassy, “Six explosions occurred in the city at about 10:13 p.m.” The Ethiopian government has declared a six-month-long state of emergency in the Tigray region. There is concern that the conflict could exacerbate ethnic division in other parts of Ethiopia, or even spread to neighboring countries such as Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia. With the conflict having no end in sight, it is unclear to predict whether current military efforts are enough to end the fighting.

Impact on Internally Displaced People and Refugees

Before the recent fighting broke out in Tigray, the region was already home to over 200,000 refugees, the majority coming from Eritrea. The current fighting is estimated to affect over 2 million people, with larger estimates of up to 9 million. As many as 43,000 have already fled to neighboring countries, with Sudan preparing to accept as many as 200,000 refugees. Thousands of people are internally displaced in Shire, near the border with Eritrea. Aid groups are urging the Ethiopian government to allow access to roads crucial to the Tigray region. This year has been especially difficult in Ethiopia, as a devastating locust outbreak, floods and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic have ravaged the country. According to the International Rescue Committee, the most important thing that can be done by forces is to adhere to international law, ensure that schools, hospitals and homes are not targets, and allow humanitarian aid to get to where it is needed. 

To Get Involved:

Check out the International Rescue Committee, a global aid and development organization providing crucial humanitarian assistance to communities in Tigray, here. 

Click here to access the website of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), which is working to establish a new shelter site for Tigrayan refugees in Sudan.

Megan is a Turkish-American student at Wellesley College in Massachusetts studying Biological Sciences. Passionate about environmental issues and learning about other cultures, she dreams of exploring the globe. In her free time, she enjoys cooking, singing, and composing music.