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How COVID-19 Will Impact Future Travel

Airplane landing during the sunset. Kuster & Wildhaber Photography. CC BY-ND 2.0

As the corona-crisis continues, the world is at a virtual standstill. Globally, 16,000 commercial airplanes have been grounded. U.S. air travel alone has dropped by 96%, the greatest travel decline in American history. Following 9/11, commercial flights decreased by 26%, a downward trend which lasted for six years. The terrorist attacks resulted in rigorous airport security, passenger identification checks and a decrease in airfare prices. Due to COVID-19, the travel sector will face an economic deficit of $1.2 trillion, nine times the impact of 9/11. With such unprecedented losses, the travel industry is embracing change. 

Throughout the pandemic, airlines have adjusted boarding procedures to mitigate the risk of passengers crossing paths. Delta Air Lines recently launched a feature on its Fly Delta app which notifies passengers of when their specific seat is boarding. Similarly, EasyJet is boarding by seat number to alleviate crowded queues. 

Many airlines and airports have also increased sanitation standards. San Francisco International Airport has stocked a three-month supply of disinfectant and uses battery-operated sprayers on high-touch areas like handrails, seats and elevator buttons. United Airlines and Delta have begun fogging the interiors of planes with the same disinfectants used in hospitals. During in-flight services, Singapore Airlines requires flight attendants to wear masks and gloves. Additionally, magazines and other print reading material will be eliminated. Alaska Airlines even suspended food and drink service, encouraging passengers to fill water bottles before boarding. Most carriers will follow this trend by suspending catering for short-haul flights. 

Delta workers disinfect high-touch areas on a Boeing 757. Delta News Hub. CC BY 2.0

While many airlines, such as British Airways, have blocked middle seats to separate passengers, engineers have proposed innovative alternatives. An Italian company, Aviointeriors, has created two seat designs to ensure cleanliness and uphold revenue-friendly capacity levels. The “Glassafe” social distancing seat includes a head-level divider, allowing airlines to maintain current seat configurations while blocking germ transmission. Inspired by the two-faced god of ancient Rome, the “Janus” middle seat faces backwards and is entirely surrounded by a glass shield. These seats promote the maximum isolation between travelers and have inspired additional safety precautions. 

Turkish Airlines and Emirates require all travelers to wear masks in airports and aboard planes. Emirates is also the first airline to test passengers for COVID-19 prior to departure. In less than 10 minutes, the airline conducts a blood test and issues a medical certificate with results. Many countries now mandate that incoming passengers possess this certificate, proving a negative COVID-19 test result. 

Another UAE-based airline, Etihad Airways, implemented contactless kiosks that monitor temperature, respiratory rate and heart rate to identify at-risk travelers. This hands-free device, developed by Australian company Elenium Automation, utilizes voice recognition to mitigate bacterial transmission. If harmful symptoms are detected, the technology automatically alerts airport staff  and suspends the check-in process. “This technology is not designed or intended to diagnose medical conditions. It is an early warning indicator which will help to identify people with general symptoms, so that they can be further assessed by medical experts, potentially preventing the spread of some conditions to others preparing to board flights to multiple destinations,” stated Joerg Oppermann, Vice President of Hub and Midfield Operations at Etihad Airways. 

In response to the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers must wear personal protective equipment. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. CC Public Domain Mark 1.0

To prevent another pandemic and promote safer flying, these travel changes will likely continue post-coronavirus. For the time being, however, health officials urge travelers to stop flying altogether, triggering a massive shock in the travel industry. In an attempt to stimulate demand, airlines have dropped prices by 15.2%. In mid-April, an American traveler found a $35 round-trip ticket from Los Angeles to Fort Lauderdale, with multiple airlines offering similar prices. 

Despite cheap flights and new safety measures, 65% of travelers feel unsafe flying during the pandemic. With vacant planes and empty skies, daily carbon dioxide emissions have declined by 1.8 million tons. "This is a historic shock to the entire energy world," noted Dr. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). By 2021, the IEA predicts that the world will use 6% less energy, equivalent to losing the entire energy demand of India. 

"The COVID-19 outbreak is showing industrialized countries not only what clean air means and how to cope without traveling, but also how healthier populations in a cleaner environment cope better with coronavirus," note researchers at UBS. This historic collapse in air travel is sparking renewable energy solutions. Norway will introduce hybrid electric planes by 2025 and projects that all of its short-haul flights will be electric by 2040. EasyJet and Wright Electric also plan on launching their first electric passenger plane by 2027. 

High-speed train station in Nanjing, China. Kristoffer Trolle. CC BY 2.0

Until then, cars and trains will be the main modes of transportation. In the United States, one in five travelers are expected to drive 500 miles or more for a leisure trip during the next six months. With gas prices dropping by 20.6%, nearly 109 million Americans plan to take family road trips this summer. In Asia and Europe, the climate impact and health risks of air travel have caused a drastic shift towards high-speed trains. Spain, France, Germany and Italy are expected to collectively add 800 high-speed rail units by 2030

Experts predict global travel levels won’t recover until 2023. Christopher Schaberg, professor of English at Loyola University New Orleans, strongly believes that “travel will not easily bounce back; a reckoning is in order.” Just as 9/11 transformed travel, COVID-19 will likely normalize masks, contactless kiosks and separation of passengers. Once travel does resume, expect safety and sanitation to be the top priority.