For the past 30 years, the world has been able to make immense progress in international development, with the amount of people living in extreme poverty (making below $1.90 a day) declining from 36% in 1990 to just 10% in 2015. The COVID-19 pandemic is reversing that. For the first time in three decades global poverty is on the rise, and up to half a billion people are now at risk of falling into poverty due to the coronavirus. Even more concerning is the matter of where the economic impacts of the virus are being felt the hardest, with the “global south” countries facing the highest risk of increased poverty for what could be years to come. 

In 2015, the U.N. adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which included 17 goals acting as guidelines for the sustainable and equitable development of all member states. Known as the “sustainable development goals” (SDGs), the international community hoped that they would act as a framework for reducing inequality and promoting economic development. Poverty reduction is at the forefront of this initiative, with SDG 1 calling for the end of global poverty. That goal will most likely not be achieved by 2030. 

Even before the spread of the coronavirus, countries were not on track to completely eliminate poverty, with the U.N. estimating that 6% of the world population will still live in extreme poverty in 2030. Furthermore, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have made that goal even more difficult. In 2020 alone, more than 71 million people have fallen into extreme poverty, and millions more worldwide will likely fall into the same trap as the economic disruptions of the pandemic linger for years to come. 

(T)he number of school-age children facing food insecurity has increased by more than 320 million

The aggregate numbers do not portray the full extent of the impacts of COVID-19 on international development. Regions already susceptible to extreme poverty are being hit hardest by the economic impacts of the pandemic. According to the United Nations University, a 10% contraction in global per capita income would cause between 180 and 280 million people to fall into extreme poverty. However, the situation becomes more dire when one considers where people are expected to face increased rates of extreme poverty. Again assuming a 10% contraction, it is estimated that up to 85% of those newly living in poverty would be located in sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia alone. These regions already face disproportionate levels of poverty relative to their populations. For example, the African continent accounts for only 13% of the world population yet makes up over half of those living in extreme poverty. 

Those who were already at an increased risk for poverty, such as refugees, informal workers and those living in underdeveloped rural communities, are especially vulnerable to economic disruptions caused by the virus. The International Labor Organization estimates that between 5 and 25 million people could lose their jobs, which would create severe impacts for marginalized workers such as women and migrants. Additionally, the number of school-age children facing food insecurity has increased by more than 320 million according to the World Food Program.

The data shows a worrying trend that the international community must contend with to eliminate global poverty. Since the 1990s, the world has worked together to lift billions of people out of poverty and increase the global standard of living. Now, the COVID-19 pandemic has once again created a barrier to making a poverty-free future possible. The full extent of the virus’s impact has yet to be seen. However, what is already known is its effect on human livelihood, especially for those who are most at risk. The pandemic has created a new challenge for the international community if it wants to make extreme poverty a thing of the past. Yet, what can be achieved with global cooperation is immense, and the world’s vision for a sustainable future is still possible; it just might take a little bit longer than hoped for.

Aerex is a current student at Occidental College majoring in Diplomacy and World Affairs with a minor in East Asian Studies. He is passionate about sharing people’s stories through writing, and always strives to learn about new places and cultures. Aerex loves finding new music and exploring his hometown of Los Angeles in his free time.