Rising sea levels are slowly swallowing some of the world’s most exciting cities. Even with defensive measures in place, and immediate cuts to carbon emissions, these levels will continue to rise.
In the twentieth century, climate change has driven global sea levels up by 11-16 cm. Even with immediate cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the average global sea level will likely rise at least one foot above those reported in the 2000s. Under high emission scenarios, the UN claims that ocean levels may approach or exceed 2 meters in the case of early-onset Antarctic ice sheet instability.
Although it won’t happen instantly, these increases will be irreversible at a temperature rise of 3C. As a direct side effect, the rising oceans threaten to erase some of the world’s greatest cities. The longer actions go without being taken, the less time people have to experience these locations as they’re known and loved today.
1: Rio De Janeiro
In the past few years, the coastal city of Rio de Janeiro has experienced extreme precipitation and deadly floods. The city’s poor drainage infrastructure stands small to the combined effects of heavy rainfall and sea-level rise caused by climate change. Despite efforts by the city government, projections show Rio’s famous beaches, including Copacabana, the waterfront domestic airport and the Barra de Tijuca neighborhood, where they hosted the Olympic Games in 2016, will be underwater by the year 2100. According to The Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP), 60% of the city’s population lives within 60 km of the coast. Flooding of the areas could mean the displacement of 1.8 million people and cost jobs and businesses that rely on tourism brought by Rio’s coast of beach destinations.
2: Shanghai
Shanghai is the most flood-prone city on earth. It sits on the Yangtze River estuary, where the tide meets the stream. The land itself is soft and low-lying, which means the city is sinking while sea levels are rising. Shanghai is victim to two to three typhoons each year, and by 2050 it is estimated the megacity will experience flooding and rainfall that is 20% higher than the global average.
If seawater infiltrates its groundwater reserves, Shanghai will need access to enough freshwater to support its 24 million people. So, in the face of these threats, the city constructed 520 km of protective seawalls that stretch across Hangzhou Bay and around islands like Chongming, Hengsha and Changxing. In an effort they call the “sponge strategy,” Shanghai city governments plan to modify and reconstruct public spaces, schools and residential areas so that 80% of urban land is capable of absorbing and reusing 70% of stormwater. But, as we’ve seen in cities like Venice, defensive measures can only go so far.
3: Venice
Only two years ago, Luigi Brugnaro, the mayor of Venice, told NPR that the city was “on its knees” after the highest tide in 50 years put 70% of the city underwater. Strong winds and storms broke through seawalls put in place to protect the city and made their way through to leave landmarks like the Saint Mark’s Basilica and La Fenice Opera House underwater. The city consists of over 100 islands inside of a lagoon along the North-East coast of Italy. Venice experiences its most severe flooding in the Winter, a period of time Venetians refer to as the “Acqua Alta.”
In the last century, these high tides have increased from less than 10 times a year to over 60. Areas hit hard include the scenic canals and historic district in the South and the beach resorts of Lido and Pellestrina. In addition to the threat of sea-level rise, it is estimated that by 2100, 76% of the population, or 35,000 residents, will be displaced. An ambitious project called MOSE was conducted in 2003 that placed movable undersea barriers around the city to protect it from high waters to combat this. However, the project remains to be completed due to corruption and lack of funding.
4: Bangkok
More than 10% of people in Thailand currently live on land that will be underwater by 2050. The commercial capital, Bangkok, is significantly endangered. Its location at the Southern end of the Chao Phraya River Basin, low land elevation and six-month-long rainy season are only said to worsen due to the impacts of climate change. As global temperatures continue to go up sea levels will rise, and Bangkok will continue to sink into the compressible clay soil on which it was built. Additionally, it is estimated parts of the city are sinking by 2 cm a year. Bangkok is expected to be 40% underwater due to rainfall and see a 15 cm sea-level rise by the year 2030. By 2080, those numbers increase to 70% underwater and an 88 cm sea-level rise. The Thai National Reform Council predicts that Bangkok could be underwater in less than 15 years due to the compounding effects of rainfall, rising oceans, climate change and land subsidence.
5: Amsterdam
Amsterdam and the Netherlands as a whole have learned to co-exist with water. From dikes, dams and floodgates to flood-friendly public spaces, the Netherlands has the most sophisticated water control systems in the world. However, the infrastructure in place today won’t protect Amsterdam forever. It is projected that sea-level rise will overrun the systems put in place to protect the city. Many of these structures are more than 500 years old, and a significant number of the city’s 1600 bridges and 200 km of canals need updates.
Sharon Dijksma, Mayor of Utrecht, told CNN that at least 5% of the city’s brick canal walls are in a poor state of repair. The work will require trees to be cut down, parking removed and roads closed to vehicles, which will ultimately alter the accessibility and livability of the city. The amount of land and population it will put at risk will require an estimated 450 million euros, or 530 million dollars, worth of delicate repairs. Unless city governments can figure out how to carry it through, the medieval infrastructures that Amsterdam is known and loved for could be lost.
Research published in Nature found that 150 million people are currently living on land that will be underwater by the middle of the century. Rising sea levels not only threaten to destroy cities as we know them but have the potential to displace enough people to constitute the greatest refugee crisis in history. Beyond an environmental issue, this is a humanitarian issue. The flooding won’t just destroy cities, but also cultural heritage. Climate change can fuel socioeconomic tension and will likely limit access to land, food and water. The limits to these vital resources will cause a migration that can possibly set off or heighten regional conflicts across the globe. It’s critical countries prepare now and begin to consider the costs should they fail to do so.
Claire Redden
Claire is a freelance journalist from Chicago, where she received her Bachelor’s of Communications from the University of Illinois. While living and studying in Paris, Claire wrote for the magazine, Toute La Culture. As a freelancer she contributes to travel guides for the up and coming brand, Thalby. She plans to take her skills to London, where she’ll pursue her Master’s of Arts and Lifestyle Journalism at the University of Arts, London College of Communication.