Why Explosive Population Growth Is Unsustainable

The world is experiencing massive population growth, most of it in the Global South. If nothing is done to slow the rate, repercussions will be felt in politics, the economy and the environment.

A crowded street in Nairobi, Kenya, which has one of the highest population growth rates in the world. rogiro. CC BY-NC 2.0.

The world’s population is growing at an alarming rate. In 1950, the world’s population was estimated to be around 2.6 billion. In 2022, it is almost 7.9 billion. While it is true that the world theoretically has enough resources to support the entire current global population with room to spare, the rate of population increase is a cause for concern. Most of the world’s resources are concentrated in the countries of North America and Europe, but most of the world’s population growth is located in the Global South, which can negatively affect the development of those countries.

When agricultural societies start to industrialize, the death rate usually drops due to advances in medical care. The birth rate stays high for a while until social changes encourage more women to join the workforce and have fewer children. Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa are stuck in a demographic transition trap.

Current world population growth rate by country. Digital Dreams. CC BY 2.0.

As countries in the Global South start to industrialize, their death rates are falling, but their birth rates are not dropping to match the death rate, resulting in explosive population growth. This demographic trap occurs when “falling living standards reinforce the prevailing high fertility, which in turn reinforces the decline in living standards.” When developing countries do not make the necessary social changes to accompany industrialization, the birth rate stays high even as the economy transitions away from agriculture. These countries are slow to change their view on the ideal family size in light of emerging industrialization, and many are still engaged in labor intensive industries which reinforce the need for many children to provide free labor.

This explosive population growth has detrimental effects on both the developing country’s economy and environment. It leads to political instability, as the deluge of people overwhelm governments, causing states to fail. Governments likely cannot provide enough resources to the ever-growing population, trapping people in a cycle of poverty. Many families are impoverished due to using their resources for taking care of many children, perpetuating a cycle of poverty. 

The inability for a government to provide for its population results in a failed state. Of the 20 top failing states defined by the Failed States Index, 15 of them are growing between 2 and 4 percent a year. In 14 of those states, 40% or more of the population are under the age of 15. Large families are the norm in failing states, with women having an average of six children.

Not only does excessive population growth lead to failed states and economic problems, but it also leads to environmental problems as well. As the Global South develops, more and more people there are becoming consumers of energy and resources, contributing to climate change. In Madagascar, population growth has “triggered massive deforestation and massive species extinction.” The current rate of population growth is unsustainable in the long run economically, politically and environmentally.

However, previous efforts to decrease the birth rate in the Global South has led to the dehumanization of many women. According to Columbia professor Dr. Matthew Connelly, Americans developed programs to “motivate medical workers to insert IUDs [intrauterine devices] in more women” in South Korea and Taiwan, causing “untold misery” as there were not enough clinics to deal with the possible side effects of those procedures. Puerto Rico became a “proving ground for both the birth control pill and state-supported sterilization” due to American policy despite pushback from religious authorities. These efforts deprive women of their agency to plan their own families.

Interventions to limit population growth must ensure that families, and specifically women, have agency over their bodies. Comprehensive sexual education is an option to enable people to understand the reasons behind the different methods to decrease birth rates. Families must be able to make an informed choice on their family size, and such sexual education is a popular idea to achieve that in a humane and dignified manner.

Bryan Fok

Bryan is currently a History and Global Affairs major at the University of Notre Dame. He aims to apply the notion of Integral Human Development as a framework for analyzing global issues. He enjoys hiking and visiting national parks.

The Immense Impact of COVID-19 on Global Poverty

A pair of boys carry water near a refugee camp in Jowhar, Somalia. The COVID-19 pandemic has made conditions for marginalized groups such as refugees more dire. World Humanitarian Summit. CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

For the past 30 years, the world has been able to make immense progress in international development, with the amount of people living in extreme poverty (making below $1.90 a day) declining from 36% in 1990 to just 10% in 2015. The COVID-19 pandemic is reversing that. For the first time in three decades global poverty is on the rise, and up to half a billion people are now at risk of falling into poverty due to the coronavirus. Even more concerning is the matter of where the economic impacts of the virus are being felt the hardest, with the “global south” countries facing the highest risk of increased poverty for what could be years to come. 

In 2015, the U.N. adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which included 17 goals acting as guidelines for the sustainable and equitable development of all member states. Known as the “sustainable development goals” (SDGs), the international community hoped that they would act as a framework for reducing inequality and promoting economic development. Poverty reduction is at the forefront of this initiative, with SDG 1 calling for the end of global poverty. That goal will most likely not be achieved by 2030. 

Even before the spread of the coronavirus, countries were not on track to completely eliminate poverty, with the U.N. estimating that 6% of the world population will still live in extreme poverty in 2030. Furthermore, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have made that goal even more difficult. In 2020 alone, more than 71 million people have fallen into extreme poverty, and millions more worldwide will likely fall into the same trap as the economic disruptions of the pandemic linger for years to come. 

(T)he number of school-age children facing food insecurity has increased by more than 320 million

The aggregate numbers do not portray the full extent of the impacts of COVID-19 on international development. Regions already susceptible to extreme poverty are being hit hardest by the economic impacts of the pandemic. According to the United Nations University, a 10% contraction in global per capita income would cause between 180 and 280 million people to fall into extreme poverty. However, the situation becomes more dire when one considers where people are expected to face increased rates of extreme poverty. Again assuming a 10% contraction, it is estimated that up to 85% of those newly living in poverty would be located in sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia alone. These regions already face disproportionate levels of poverty relative to their populations. For example, the African continent accounts for only 13% of the world population yet makes up over half of those living in extreme poverty. 

Those who were already at an increased risk for poverty, such as refugees, informal workers and those living in underdeveloped rural communities, are especially vulnerable to economic disruptions caused by the virus. The International Labor Organization estimates that between 5 and 25 million people could lose their jobs, which would create severe impacts for marginalized workers such as women and migrants. Additionally, the number of school-age children facing food insecurity has increased by more than 320 million according to the World Food Program.

The data shows a worrying trend that the international community must contend with to eliminate global poverty. Since the 1990s, the world has worked together to lift billions of people out of poverty and increase the global standard of living. Now, the COVID-19 pandemic has once again created a barrier to making a poverty-free future possible. The full extent of the virus’s impact has yet to be seen. However, what is already known is its effect on human livelihood, especially for those who are most at risk. The pandemic has created a new challenge for the international community if it wants to make extreme poverty a thing of the past. Yet, what can be achieved with global cooperation is immense, and the world’s vision for a sustainable future is still possible; it just might take a little bit longer than hoped for.

Aerex Narvasa

Aerex is a current student at Occidental College majoring in Diplomacy and World Affairs with a minor in East Asian Studies. He is passionate about sharing people’s stories through writing, and always strives to learn about new places and cultures. Aerex loves finding new music and exploring his hometown of Los Angeles in his free time.