Why Explosive Population Growth Is Unsustainable

The world is experiencing massive population growth, most of it in the Global South. If nothing is done to slow the rate, repercussions will be felt in politics, the economy and the environment.

A crowded street in Nairobi, Kenya, which has one of the highest population growth rates in the world. rogiro. CC BY-NC 2.0.

The world’s population is growing at an alarming rate. In 1950, the world’s population was estimated to be around 2.6 billion. In 2022, it is almost 7.9 billion. While it is true that the world theoretically has enough resources to support the entire current global population with room to spare, the rate of population increase is a cause for concern. Most of the world’s resources are concentrated in the countries of North America and Europe, but most of the world’s population growth is located in the Global South, which can negatively affect the development of those countries.

When agricultural societies start to industrialize, the death rate usually drops due to advances in medical care. The birth rate stays high for a while until social changes encourage more women to join the workforce and have fewer children. Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa are stuck in a demographic transition trap.

Current world population growth rate by country. Digital Dreams. CC BY 2.0.

As countries in the Global South start to industrialize, their death rates are falling, but their birth rates are not dropping to match the death rate, resulting in explosive population growth. This demographic trap occurs when “falling living standards reinforce the prevailing high fertility, which in turn reinforces the decline in living standards.” When developing countries do not make the necessary social changes to accompany industrialization, the birth rate stays high even as the economy transitions away from agriculture. These countries are slow to change their view on the ideal family size in light of emerging industrialization, and many are still engaged in labor intensive industries which reinforce the need for many children to provide free labor.

This explosive population growth has detrimental effects on both the developing country’s economy and environment. It leads to political instability, as the deluge of people overwhelm governments, causing states to fail. Governments likely cannot provide enough resources to the ever-growing population, trapping people in a cycle of poverty. Many families are impoverished due to using their resources for taking care of many children, perpetuating a cycle of poverty. 

The inability for a government to provide for its population results in a failed state. Of the 20 top failing states defined by the Failed States Index, 15 of them are growing between 2 and 4 percent a year. In 14 of those states, 40% or more of the population are under the age of 15. Large families are the norm in failing states, with women having an average of six children.

Not only does excessive population growth lead to failed states and economic problems, but it also leads to environmental problems as well. As the Global South develops, more and more people there are becoming consumers of energy and resources, contributing to climate change. In Madagascar, population growth has “triggered massive deforestation and massive species extinction.” The current rate of population growth is unsustainable in the long run economically, politically and environmentally.

However, previous efforts to decrease the birth rate in the Global South has led to the dehumanization of many women. According to Columbia professor Dr. Matthew Connelly, Americans developed programs to “motivate medical workers to insert IUDs [intrauterine devices] in more women” in South Korea and Taiwan, causing “untold misery” as there were not enough clinics to deal with the possible side effects of those procedures. Puerto Rico became a “proving ground for both the birth control pill and state-supported sterilization” due to American policy despite pushback from religious authorities. These efforts deprive women of their agency to plan their own families.

Interventions to limit population growth must ensure that families, and specifically women, have agency over their bodies. Comprehensive sexual education is an option to enable people to understand the reasons behind the different methods to decrease birth rates. Families must be able to make an informed choice on their family size, and such sexual education is a popular idea to achieve that in a humane and dignified manner.

Bryan Fok

Bryan is currently a History and Global Affairs major at the University of Notre Dame. He aims to apply the notion of Integral Human Development as a framework for analyzing global issues. He enjoys hiking and visiting national parks.

Iran’s Shoddy ‘Satellite Cities’ Test Citizens’ Patience

Thanks to high rent prices and overpopulation, thousands of Iranians have been forced out of their hometowns. But the “satellite cities” built to hold them leave much to be desired. 

An aerial view of Tehran, Iran. Hansueli Krapf. CC BY-SA 3.0

In the 1980s, Iran intentionally tried to grow its own population, aiming to increase its military strength amid the Iran-Iraq war. The 1979 Islamic Revolution had seen Iran’s old monarchy overthrown and a new republic built on Shiite Islam take shape. Student groups and leftist organizations rejoiced at the new rights promised to women; Islamist groups lauded the fact that their country was now a theocracy. But the new government wanted to ensure that the ideas of the revolution would last beyond one generation. So it encouraged polygamy, made birth control nearly impossible to find and lowered the age of marriage to 9 for girls and 15 for boys.

The plan worked—Iran’s population grew enormously. Forty years after the revolution, there are almost 50 million more people living in Iran. But these newcomers are not a new generation of happy, loyal citizens. They are people who the nation was not built to hold. 

Overpopulation was not something Iran was completely unprepared for. Soon after the revolution, 17 new “satellite cities” were planned on the outskirts of the country's major cities. They had names like Pardis (“paradise” in Persian) and Parand ("silk"). They were to provide affordable places to live for people that the larger cities could not hold. But as Iran struggled with unrest and war, these cities wouldn’t begin to be built for decades. They remain half-finished even today.

The Mehr housing project in Nishapur, Iran. Sonia Sevilla. CC BY 1.0

In 2007, the Iranian government developed a scheme it hoped would solve the overpopulation problem and make the satellite cities more livable: contract out free land to real estate developers who were willing to build low-income housing units. In this way around 2 million homes were planned to be built throughout Iran. But the Mehr housing project, as it was called, failed to deliver in the cities that needed housing the most. The 400,000 units built were poorly constructed and lacked essential utilities, like plumbing and clean water. The sterile white color that all the high-rises were painted with in Pardis says it all. These buildings didn’t seem like they were meant to be lived in, only passed through. 

But the satellite cities are indeed lived in. In recent years, the overpopulation that plagues Iran’s largest cities has only gotten worse. The Financial Times reported in 2017 that the population of Tehran, Iran’s capital and largest city, “exceeds the optimum level by more than 70%.” The air is full of pollution, and the city’s roads are packed with traffic. But the last straw for many Tehranis is the cost of housing, which according to the New Yorker has more than doubled in the last three years. U.S. sanctions have contributed to this, as did former President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. With nowhere else to go, droves of Iranians have moved to the satellite cities, where houses are cheaper. In 2019, the population of Parand was 100,000; a year later, that number had doubled.

The unfinished cities have been unable to provide jobs for their populations. Most of the people who make up Pardis must commute each day to work in Tehran. And, as the city lacks most forms of public transport, this means driving—sometimes up to three hours each way. The cities lack recreational areas, stores and the capabilities to provide health care and schooling to their growing populations. It’s no surprise that drug abuse and suicides are common in the cities.

Real estate prices remain high in congested Tehran, and more and more people are expected to leave. The people who make up these satellite cities, despite the lack of basic amenities, are grateful that they have a place to go at all. The Mehr housing project is not finished, and it is possible that in five years the livability of Tehran’s satellite cities will improve. But it is up to the Iranian government to ensure that these improvements do happen, and soon. The well-being of many Iranians depends on it.

Finn Hartnett

Finn grew up in New York City and is now a first-year at the University of Chicago. In addition to writing for Catalyst, he serves as a reporter for the Chicago Maroon. He spends his free time watching soccer and petting his cat.